Some reports suggest as many as 10,000 troops have been deployed, although British sources believe this is an exaggeration.The Croats had been riding a wave of success following their unexpectedly swift seizure of the Serb-held Krajina and the flight of most of the population, and the Bosnian Croats’ unexpected success in surrounding Drvar, although there has been no confirmation that the Bosnian Serb town has fallen.”If I was them I’d have gone for it”, a British military source said. However, a senior western diplomat said, “one cannot conclude the operation is off”.While all seemed quiet on the Croatian and Bosnian Croat fronts, Serb shells rained into Sarajevo, the worst shelling for two weeks, killing four people and injuring at least 29, including six Egyptian UN peacekeepers and two children.A five-storey apartment block was hit, apparently by a rocket, demolishing four floors and setting it on fire The building was largely empty, but one woman was injured. Witnesses said they saw explosions from ammunition stored in one of the flats. The six Egyptians were wounded when their position was deliberately fired on by Bosnian Serb mortars.

The UN in Sarajevo said it had been unable to locate the mortar, and under the rules of engagement, could not return fire.Last week the Croatian army moved at least 4,000 troops from Split into the Dubrovnik area, apparently poised to move north to Trebinje to drive Serb artillery out of range of the medieval city. At the same time, public enthusiasm for the EU has declined, with polls suggesting that a majority would oppose membership if Sweden held a new referendum.. CHRISTOPHER BELLAMY

Defence Correspondent
The Croatian attack on Serb positions north of Dubrovnik and Bosnian Croat advances in western Bosnia around the town of Drvar appeared to have been put on hold yesterday, although the Dubrovnik operation may only have been postponed.”Our assessment is that they are battle-ready and could strike at any time”, said Major Don Roy, a UN military spokesman.It looks as if a desire to give the new US peace plan a chance, possibly combined with caution about Serb defensive measures in the area, induced the Croats to hold back.There has also been direct pressure on Croatia from the United States, which lent tacit support to the Croats’ recapture of Krajina, not to continue attacks on the Serbs. Unemployment runs at more than 12 per cent, if people on various government-backed working and training schemes are included, and the budget deficit is more than 11 per cent of GNP.Cuts in welfare spending have alienated many traditional Social Democratic voters and increased support for the Left Party of reformed communists. “I want to be able to have dinner with my family without having to book it three months in advance.”Mr Carlsson’s government has lost popularity over the past year because it has been forced to adopt strict austerity measures to combat Sweden’s worst economic crisis since the 1930s. But some private business executives have regarded Mrs Sahlin with suspicion ever since she criticised their high pay and bonuses and called them “spoilt children”.Mr Carlsson’s retirement will allow his successor up to two and a half years to settle into the prime minister’s job before Sweden holds its next general elections. Having steered the Social Democrats to victory last September, and having led the successful “Yes” campaign in last October’s referendum on joining the EU, Mr Carlsson felt the time was right to bow out at the top.”I want to have something that I haven’t experienced in 30 years,” he said.

She played a key part in persuading Mr Carlsson to introduce a rule under which cabinet posts are distributed equally between men and women.She has strong support among the youth and women’s sections of the Social Democrats, and the party faithful admire her defence of Sweden’s large and expensive public sector as an important national asset that should be funded by tax increases if necessary. Mrs Sahlin, a mother of three who dropped out of university because her studies bored her, has been one of Mr Carlsson’s most trusted colleagues in recent years.If she replaces Mr Carlsson, she will not only become Sweden’s first female prime minister but its youngest ever. An outside candidate, Margareta Winberg, who is the Agriculture Minister and is known chiefly for her hostility to the European Union, received 11 per cent.Mr Carlsson, 60, announced last Friday that he would resign at a party congress next March, 10 years after he took over the Social Democratic leadership following the assassination of Olof Palme. Mona Sahlin, 38, who at present combines the jobs of deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Sexual Equality, received 49 per cent this week in a straw poll of supporters of the ruling Social Democrats.Her nearest rival was the little-known Minister for Co-ordination, Jan Nygren, who scored 19 per cent in the survey published by the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet. TONY BARBER

Europe Editor
A feminist who wears jeans to work and wants to prosecute men who visit prostitutes is the front-runner to replace Ingvar Carlsson as Sweden’s next Prime Minister. He warned that Zaire could not continue to house hundreds of thousands of refugees at the risk of its own safety and economy.. Kinshasa took matters into its own hands after the UN Security Council last Thursday decided to suspend its arms embargo against Rwanda.Zaire’s UN ambassador, Lukabu Khabouji N’zaji, told the council at the time that additional weapons for Rwanda would encourage an increased flow of refugees into Zaire.